By finishing second in the rain behind the charging Dani Pedrosa, Valentino Rossi extended his championship lead over third-pace finisher Jorge Lorenzo by four points. Lorenzo noted afterward: “If I win all [three remaining] races and another rider finishes between me and Valentino, I can still win the championship.” Marc Marquez, third in the standings but 86 points out of first, is out of the championship hunt. All running prior to Sunday had been in the dry, with Lorenzo topping every session. The surprise was Rossi, who pushed uncharacteristically hard in qualifying and topped Lorenzo’s best time near the end. Lorenzo came back in the last minute with an even quicker time. That meant nothing in Sunday morning’s wet warm-up, when Pedrosa topped the session by a quarter-second. The Motegi circuit in Japan consists of an accordion-folded layout of medium straights and fairly tight corners, requiring a lot of braking (Ben Spies’ brake problems at the track in 2012 caused Race Direction to require the use of otherwise optional 340mm discs here). Motegi’s braking works the front tire very hard, but the rear has an easier time because there is little grinding through long corners on the tire edges. 
At the start, Rossi, whom we may safely regard as highly motivated, launched to Turn 1 ahead of “drag king” Lorenzo, but after a few corners worth of scuffle Lorenzo was soon past and pulling away (all the top riders had chosen the harder of the two wet front tires and the softer of the two rears). In terms of lap time, Lorenzo began to slow from about lap 6, having built up more than three seconds’ lead, but the others were soon slowing as well, as their soft and tender rain tires began to degrade. Rain rubber, being necessarily soft (track temperature was only 70 degrees F) lacks tensile strength and quickly shows its age. Here was the predicament: Because wet races are infrequent, no one has much experience with rain tire life and rain tire behavior. All of practice had been dry, leaving only the Sunday warmup to teach the essential truths. And then a dry line appeared at mid-distance, which is something that no one can predict. Each rider chose the only strategy really open to him. Pedrosa, with no championship hopes but with a real need to demonstrate his enduring value, could afford to keep in touch back in fourth place, conserving his rubber in hope that conditions would improve; good for him, they did. Lorenzo and Rossi, one of whom will be 2016 MotoGP world champion very soon, could not take the chance of hanging back; they had to race. Could their tires do it? 
Said Pedrosa: “This race didn’t go as I expected. I couldn’t go fast at the beginning, so I lost out a lot at the start. I tried to stay in fourth place and keep a good rhythm and maybe I conserved my tires better than the other riders.” The numbers show the diminutive Spaniard moving forward from lap 12, and then catching up faster from lap 15. After Pedrosa passed Rossi for second, Rossi stayed with him as the two men approached the leader. Observed Lorenzo: “In the rain I was very fast, but unfortunately the track dried up and my push at the beginning of the race probably made my tire a bit worse than Valentino’s and Dani’s. When the track was almost dry, my front tire was destroyed and I couldn’t ride like before.” Pedrosa and Rossi made their way to first and second, respectively, which is how they finished. This is of special interest because Michelin, taking over as the spec tire provider for MotoGP in 2016, plans to reintroduce intermediate tires. When last year I asked MotoGP tech director Mike Webb why intermediates were not available, he essentially said: “No one wants them.” This reminds me of a hardware clerk, asked for ten-penny nails, replying, “Nah, we don’t stock ’em. Nobody uses those things.” 
Wet tires, whose tread consists of many unsupported flexible elements, generate heat that requires water-cooling to survive. Intermediates are slicks with limited drainage grooving, so they flex less, generate less heat, and last longer. I suspect the present “no-intermediates” policy has something to do with the flag-to-flag idea of declaring races either “dry” or “wet” despite the fact that the usual condition—neither fully wet nor dry—cannot be an “either-or.” Also interesting was what Bradley Smith had to say about his first fall in Qualifying 2 (which was dry): “The first fall was a pity as I locked the front going into Turn 5 and the fork bottomed out.” The Hondas have to be set up so their front suspension can remain supple and un-bottomed while supporting the entire weight of bike, rider, and fuel; we have all seen Marquez at the height of his powers, rushing his turn entries with the back wheel in the air. But for Smith’s Tech 3 Yamaha to bottom from front wheel lock suggests much less stiff springing—giving the high mechanical grip needed to support the Yamaha racers’ corner-speed riding style. In a wet race, such differences tend to disappear. In conditions of low grip, everyone goes much softer on springs and damping, hoping thereby to smooth out tire loading to something that wet rubber can manage. 
We must respect how difficult Rossi’s task has been. When he went to Ducati, nothing worked. When he came back to Yamaha, not only had the bike advanced, but the state of riding had changed, making his original style into a tail-ender. He was doing well at first just to hang onto the top group, with no hope of fighting with any of its members. So he had to teach himself elements of the modern style, just as Nobel Prize-winning physicist Hans Bethe decided, in his 80s, to learn string theory (“I still think I’m pretty good,” Bethe said at the time). But Rossi had no teacher, and rules prevented him from practicing on race bike and race tires at any time other than in official practices and in the races themselves. Many riders are left behind by this sport as tires and chassis evolve but their riding styles do not. Not Rossi: He has in effect “derived string theory” on his own, and is now leading the 2015 MotoGP championship at age 36. Add to that the fact that Rossi has unique fuel consumption problems. His gangly frame doesn’t fit on his bike as neatly as do those of his physically more compact rivals. This extra aero drag, plus his greater weight, makes his engine burn more fuel. To make the limited fuel last, his Yamaha team must lean the engine down in every regime of operation in which that is possible. Normally, no team wants to dry out its engines’ intake ducts by fully cutting off fuel flow during braking, for as the rider next turns the throttle to accelerate, his intake tract must re-wet (fuel flows to the engine in three forms: as evaporated vapor, as entrained droplets, and as wet fuel moving along duct walls). The re-wetting process takes time, so when the engine chimes in, it hits harder than usual as the mixture switches from very lean to power. How does Rossi stay hooked up during this hit? We can hope to ask him one day. Pedrosa is always in the picture, and at Motegi he won. While others are warmed and perhaps driven by the limelight, Pedrosa somehow keeps the pace on his own. That, too, is an accomplishment we must respect. 
RIDER CHATTER DANI PEDROSA “I’m so happy with this win! It has been a long time since my last one and I'm really pleased. It was a fun race, because at first I took things calmly and lost too much time, but the strategy worked out because afterward I recovered ground gradually. I had a special feeling at that point in the race and I'm happy to take this victory for Honda at their home track, for the team, the sponsors, my friends and family, because it has been a difficult season. It’s not been an easy weekend here in Japan, I’d also like to wish Alex de Angelis all the best and hope he recovers soon.” MARC MARQUEZ “It was a difficult Sunday. In the wet, right from the warm up, it was difficult to find the ideal setup and I didn’t feel entirely comfortable. We made some small changes for the race, so as not to take too many risks, but I never felt good and in the end we finished fourth. My hand didn’t give me too many problems in the wet; in the dry it would have been more difficult. Now we have to take away information from this Sunday and I look forward to going to Phillip Island, which is a circuit that should be better for us and is one of my favorites. I’d also like to send my best wishes to Alex de Angelis. We are all thinking of him.” VALENTINO ROSSI “Physically it wasn‘t so bad, but mentally it was very hard to always keep the concentration, because it‘s very easy to make a mistake. At the beginning, we had a good pace, but Jorge was stronger than me and was able to create a small advantage. After that my pace was good. I stayed with him and tried not to lose more time and used it as a motivation to keep my concentration, but when the track started to dry everything became more difficult. The tire gave up and started spinning a lot on the straight and Dani arrived. It was a difficult situation, because if Dani beat me and not Jorge I would have lost another nine points after Aragón. I was able to do three or four very strong laps behind Dani and catch Jorge, who then made a mistake. I took an additional four-point advantage, which was our target, so we are very happy. The track was a lot better when it was fully wet, because the tires worked well. When it starts to dry up, it feels like you are in a boat at sea, the bike moves everywhere. Three or four times when I touched the throttle I felt the front go and said “no, no, no!” It was difficult, lots of stress.” JORGE LORENZO “It was a pity because I think that on the dry I was the fastest and the more consistent rider. Also in the rain I was very fast, but unfortunately the track dried up and my push at the beginning of the race probably made my tyre a bit worse than Valentino‘s and Dani‘s. When the track was almost dry, my front tyre was destroyed and I couldn't ride like before. For this race it was important to finish in front of Valentino, but the championship is not over, because I remember in 2013 I was even further from Marquez in the standings and I lost the championship by just four points. Eighteen points is a lot, but if I win all races and another rider finishes between me and Valentino, I can still win the championship.” RESULTS: 2015 GRAND PRIX OF JAPAN
| Pos. | Rider | Num | Nation | Points | Team | Time/Gap |
| 1 | PEDROSA Dani | 26 | SPA | 25 | Repsol Honda Team | 46'50.767 |
| 2 | ROSSI Valentino | 46 | ITA | 20 | Movistar Yamaha MotoGP | +8.573 |
| 3 | LORENZO Jorge | 99 | SPA | 16 | Movistar Yamaha MotoGP | +12.127 |
| 4 | MARQUEZ Marc | 93 | SPA | 13 | Repsol Honda Team | +27.841 |
| 5 | DOVIZIOSO Andrea | 4 | ITA | 11 | Ducati Team | +35.085 |
| 6 | CRUTCHLOW Cal | 35 | GBR | 10 | LCR Honda | +37.263 |
| 7 | SMITH Bradley | 38 | GBR | 9 | Monster Yamaha Tech 3 | +37.667 |
| 8 | NAKASUGA Katsuyuki | 21 | JPN | 8 | Yamaha Factory Racing Team | +44.654 |
| 9 | BARBERA Hector | 8 | SPA | 7 | Avintia Racing | +48.572 |
| 10 | REDDING Scott | 45 | GBR | 6 | Estrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS | +50.121 |
| 11 | ESPARGARO Aleix | 41 | SPA | 5 | Team Suzuki Ecstar | +1'00.535 |
| 12 | TAKAHASHI Takumi | 72 | JPN | 4 | Team HRC with NISSIN | +1'01.211 |
| 13 | HAYDEN Nicky | 69 | USA | 3 | Aspar MotoGP Team | +1'11.261 |
| 14 | HERNANDEZ Yonny | 68 | COL | 2 | Pramac Racing | +1'13.896 |
| 15 | DI MEGLIO Mike | 63 | FRA | 1 | Avintia Racing | +1'15.421 |
| 16 | BAUTISTA Alvaro | 19 | SPA | 0 | Aprilia Racing Team Gresini | +1'20.507 |
| 17 | LAVERTY Eugene | 50 | IRE | 0 | Aspar MotoGP Team | +1'31.224 |
| 18 | BRADL Stefan | 6 | GER | 0 | Aprilia Racing Team Gresini | +1'46.833 |
| 19 | AKIYOSHI Kosuke | 64 | JPN | 0 | AB Motoracing |
| Pos. | Rider | Num | Nation | Points | Team |
| 1 | ROSSI Valentino | 46 | ITA | 283 | Movistar Yamaha MotoGP |
| 2 | LORENZO Jorge | 99 | SPA | 265 | Movistar Yamaha MotoGP |
| 3 | MARQUEZ Marc | 93 | SPA | 197 | Repsol Honda Team |
| 4 | IANNONE Andrea | 29 | ITA | 172 | Ducati Team |
| 5 | PEDROSA Dani | 26 | SPA | 154 | Repsol Honda Team |
| 6 | SMITH Bradley | 38 | GBR | 152 | Monster Yamaha Tech 3 |
| 7 | DOVIZIOSO Andrea | 4 | ITA | 150 | Ducati Team |
| 8 | CRUTCHLOW Cal | 35 | GBR | 98 | LCR Honda |
| 9 | PETRUCCI Danilo | 9 | ITA | 93 | Pramac Racing |
| 10 | ESPARGARO Pol | 44 | SPA | 88 | Monster Yamaha Tech 3 |
| 11 | ESPARGARO Aleix | 41 | SPA | 81 | Team Suzuki Ecstar |
| 12 | VINALES Maverick | 25 | SPA | 74 | Team Suzuki Ecstar |
| 13 | REDDING Scott | 45 | GBR | 73 | Estrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS |
| 14 | HERNANDEZ Yonny | 68 | COL | 49 | Pramac Racing |
| 15 | BARBERA Hector | 8 | SPA | 30 | Avintia Racing |
| 16 | BAZ Loris | 76 | FRA | 28 | Athina Forward Racing |
| 17 | BAUTISTA Alvaro | 19 | SPA | 26 | Aprilia Racing Team Gresini |
| 18 | HAYDEN Nicky | 69 | USA | 16 | Aspar MotoGP Team |
| 19 | MILLER Jack | 43 | AUS | 16 | LCR Honda |
| 20 | BRADL Stefan | 6 | GER | 11 | Aprilia Racing Team Gresini |
| 21 | LAVERTY Eugene | 50 | IRE | 9 | Aspar MotoGP Team |
| 22 | NAKASUGA Katsuyuki | 21 | JPN | 8 | Yamaha Factory Racing Team |
| 23 | PIRRO Michele | 51 | ITA | 8 | Ducati Team |
| 24 | DI MEGLIO Mike | 63 | FRA | 8 | Avintia Racing |
| 25 | AOYAMA Hiroshi | 7 | JPN | 5 | AB Motoracing |
| 26 | TAKAHASHI Takumi | 72 | JPN | 4 | Team HRC with NISSIN |
| 27 | DE ANGELIS Alex | 15 | RSM | 2 | Athina Forward Racing |
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